Author Topic: Who benefits most from Brexit?  (Read 1154 times)

OfflineDavid Pinnegar

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 8
  • Karma: +0/-0
    • Share Post
    • View Profile
Who benefits most from Brexit?
« on: July 25, 2016, 06:46:52 PM »
https://www.quora.com/Who-are-the-biggest-winners-and-losers-if-Britain-were-to-exit-from-the-EU

Peter Hawkins
Peter Hawkins, Brit
26.2k Views · Most Viewed Writer in United Kingdom with 510+ answers
Winners

Vladimir Putin. Putin wants a divided Europe and a weak EU. One of the richer (and militarily powerful) nations in Europe leaving the EU helps this. This is why Kremlin funds can be traced to various Eurosceptic movements across the Continent. Russia accused of clandestine funding of European parties as US conducts major review of Vladimir Putin's strategy
other anti-EU populists on the Continent. eg. The National Front in France. A Brexit shows that joining the EU is not a one-way deal and provides a potential blueprint for other nations leaving.
short-term, the right of the Tory party (the faction that I call “Arch-Thatcherites”). They would wrest control of the party quickly, and with Labour in disarray they could quite possibly win the next election unless a Brexit proves absolutely disastrous (I think it would be disastrous, but just how disastrous is up for debate).
businesses who want to reduce workers’ protection. Currently, the EU stops them. The Arch-Thatcherites that would be in control in Brexit-world are explicit that they want aggressive deregulation.
Jeremy Corbyn. A total disaster following Brexit is the only realistic scenario by which I can see Corbyn entering number 10.
Nigel Farage. His place in the history books will be assured. He is basically a one-man campaigning machine that has taken what was a pretty obscure movement to having an absolutely huge impact on the UK government policy. If we vote to Brexit, I will quite happily acknowledge him as one of the UK’s most skilled politicians, even if I disagree with him on a bunch of stuff.
maybe non-EU migrants. I don’t find this especially likely given the clamour to get migration down from the Brexiteers, but I guess it’s possible that a Brexit would allow us to rationalise our immigration system and allow more high-skilled migrants from outside of the EU in. As I say, I think this is pretty politically unlikely, but it’s not impossible by any means.
maybe people who don’t own a home yet. The British housing market is daft, and arguably needs a good crash (he writes as a non-home owner). A Brexit could cause that market correction.

Losers

Ordinary British people. Major recession, house prices in the toilet, sluggish economic growth, associated effect on pensions, inflation increases due to tariffs etc.
the EU and NATO. The EU and NATO are weakened by the UK leaving the EU. Our NATO allies have been explicit about this.
British workers, whose protections get chucked on the bonfire in an effort to mitigate the recession
EU citizens who want to work in the UK, unless they have some absurdly specific skillset that the tabloids would insist doesn’t get locked out. Maybe paediatricians or something like that. But people outside of these protected industries are going to be locked out, as the post-Brexit government loses its excuse for not getting immigration down to under 100,000 net
Moderate “Cameron” faction of the Conservatives. Cameron is politically toast if we vote Leave. Same for Osborne, Javid and so on.
Yes, I came up with more winners than losers, but that’s because the Eurosceptic side is more interesting. Not because they have the strongest case (they don’t).
Updated Jul 7 · View Upvotes
Upvote355DownvoteComments23+
Share


Yuen Lo, studied, lived and worked here for over thirty years
3.2k Views
Most of the excellent answers so far are quite broadly scoped, I want to cover five specific examples.

Finance industry and workers - Bank CEOs do not want brexit because it will both increase the regulatory complexity of their global businesses and also make it harder for them to hire staff in London. But this throws up this freaky result: if you are working in finance in London and you have a British passport, you are a winner, because there will be a dramatic cut in the future supply of talented professionals you compete with.



Builders - I had maybe four sets of builders quote on our home extension. Although the head builder tends to be English, the labourers are nearly always of a single ethnic group. One was Polish, one was Chinese, while the builders we went with were largely Ukrainian. The UK does not have enough skilled builders, plumbers and electricians and post brexit people working in the building trade will earn more, but I imagine it will become virtually impossible for people to get their residential projects started. The building trade is an odd beneficiary of both EU and illegal immigration, both of which will be under pressure from a new anti immigrant government. Also given how poor the UK is at infrastructure, this could delay major projects like HS2 and Crossrail 2. More prosaically, we’re going to have to get into DIY the way our dads were.

Academia - As I discuss here [1] the university system will face a double whammy of reduced access to EU research council funding and a collapse in foreign students. EU research funding is a little under a $1bn a year. [2] In terms of university places, in 2014 there were 430k [3] non-UK students in the UK. Non EU students (130k) typically pay 3 times "home" fees. 430k equates to 17% of the higher education student body. We will quickly discover how many of these non-EU and EU students will be allowed in and it probably won’t be many. Staff numbers will come down and the Government will step in to make up the difference in funding. Since exams won’t get easier, students will overall probably get a worse experience and enjoy less opportunity going forward.

People with dreams - do you dream of living in Berlin for a year? Or do you fantasize about a three bed semi in Dagenham? Is your ideal partner Eva Green or Cheryl Cole? My opinion is that whatever impact the referendum has, you mostly won’t notice it changing your life. But it will have a huge impact on the probability of your dreams. Perhaps your chances of being swept off your feet by a suave Frenchman are only one in a hundred, but post Brexit it might be less than one in a thousand! Broadly, the more internationalist your outlook, the more bruised your dreams will be outside the EU.

I wonder if that explains this:



The less well off - will again see a ambivalent outcome. Clearly fewer immigrants means the chances of the unskilled getting a job on a building site or in a field will go up. However, the EU referendum will likely prove to be a right wing Tory takeover of a centre right Tory England. As noted by the unions [4] , this may put at risk worker rights around parenting, discrimination and time off. If you’re wondering what the government means about putting your pensions at risk, its a straightforward analysis that immigrants pay more tax than natives. Remember they tend to be younger. I don’t want to associate my analysis with the GDP stuff because it is so unknown, but if immigrants do pay more tax, then both pensions and welfare are at risk.

As an aside I think basic income is a great way to link the benefits of immigration to individual citizens.

This answer follows another I wrote arguing that the only impact of Brexit will be to create winners and losers: Yuen Lo's answer to Do you think that the UK should leave the EU?

Footnotes
[1] Yuen Lo's answer to What would the consequences of a Brexit be for UK citizens?
[2] UK’s big guns make a stand for research in Europe
[3] International students in UK HE - International student statistics: UK higher education
[4] UK trade union leaders call on 6 million members to vote remain

Updated Jul 5 · View Upvotes
Upvote36DownvoteComments1+
Share
Bonnie Foley-Wong
Bonnie Foley-Wong, CEO Pique Ventures, 18+ yrs in finance & investing, author Integrated Investing
1.1k Views
Both sides of the Brexit debate wanted more or less the same thing - access to resources and opportunities, safety and security, and a better future. People voted or were aligned to either Remain or Leave based on different reasons and biases, but who is winning or losing as a result of the referendum outcome? Who will win or lose if the UK does in fact leave the EU (at the time of writing, Article 50 has not yet been invoked and therefore the formal process of exiting the EU has not started).

Winners

People who already have choices, options, access to resources and opportunities. The more choices and resources you have, the more boundary-less the world is. People with the advantage and privilege of choice and resources will simply go to wherever the opportunities are and deal with whatever the rules and regulations are to do so.

People who succeed in uncertain or volatile economic conditions. Traders and people who profit from volatility in the financial markets may benefit.
Losers

Peace in the world. I had believed that irrespective of the outcome of the vote, the very existence of the referendum itself had made space for voices of hate and anger to get louder.
Global economy. About a month ago, I vocalized something that had been brewing on my mind for some time - about the potential bubbles in the US tech sector and in China. Interest rates are also unsustainably low or negative in some economies. Something has to give. Strangely, the sound of Brexit has drowned out practically everything else. We now have uncertainty in Europe, the US, and China. This, to me, does not a good combination make.
People with less choice, options, economic resources and opportunities.
One friend that voted Leave seemed to point to the Commonwealth as a potential soft landing post-Brexit. For many, Brexit was about shared values first and foremost and economics second and not to be defined by continental, geographic borders. This makes me wonder whether the Commonwealth represents those shared values some British people were looking for. Who knows whether the Commonwealth will win or lose, but it was an interesting thing to look into. For comparison, the combined GDP of EU members in 2014 was $18.5 trillion. The US was $16.8 trillion in 2013, China was $9.2 trillion. The combined GDP of Commonwealth members was $9 trillion. Could trade amongst Commonwealth members become a more important feature in the UK’s economy or will members such as Australia start to back away slowly?


Written Jul 4 · View Upvotes
Upvote11DownvoteComment1
Share
Alfred Dominic Vella
Alfred Dominic Vella, A Brummie by birth
1k Views · Alfred has 120+ answers in United Kingdom

David Cameron And Martin Schulz – Bad Cop / Bad Cop Anti-Brexit Strategy

Answering this is much like answering questions like ‘who will win when evolution is in progress’?

Brexit would be an opportunity for both Britain and the EU to try out new things. Britain should never have been allowed to join and General De Gaulle never wanted us to anyway. He knew that we never like being part of a team unless we are captain.

There may well be tough times ahead for both the EU and Britain and when these come people will blame the result of the referendum, whatever it may be!

As a committed European, I want the best for the world, Europe, Britain, Milton Keynes, Bletchley … IN THAT ORDER rather in the reverse order that people seem to make their decisions on.

I want to see a much more democratic Britain and EU but currently democracy is stuck by the resistance of national governments wanting their own sovereignty.

I do not prefer rule by Cameron over Schulz. What grounds would anyone have? Racial, because Cameron is British? Does Cameron have more of a mandate that Schulz?

Cameron has the support of 330 of the 650 MPs, Schulz that of 409 of the 612 MEPs.

That is 50.8% for Cameron as opposed to 66.8% for Schulz.
Written Jun 10 · View Upvotes
Upvote6DownvoteComments3+
Share
Rupert Baines
Rupert Baines, fascinated by it
1.3k Views · Most Viewed Writer in European Union with 270+ answers
I agree with Peter Hawkins answer

To add a couple

Winners

Lawyers. Figuring out Laws, contract disputes, lawsuits… Lots of business

Bureaucrats 1. Ask those trade deals we will need (124 to replace the ones the EU has) well need a huge number if negotiators.

Bureaucrats 2. All the laws and regulations now done at EU level will need to be done within UKI; also lots of people needed to write regulations and laws.

Losers

EU citizens. While Brexit will hurt our economy most, it will damage EU too.

Other people around the world. Similarly, it will have minor effects on economy in other countries.

Poorer areas in UK. The EU send money to regional development in poor regions, which the UK has got a surprising number of. Those funds will stop and it is unlikely a Tory government would replace them. even if it could afford them, which it categorically will not be able to do, because it will be very short of money.
Updated Jul 5 · View Upvotes
Upvote28DownvoteComments1+
Share
Simon Pastor
Simon Pastor, Just a European Citizen
639 Views
Its quite difficult to know exactly what will happen and who will benefit if Britain were to exit the EU. However, there are a couple things that can be said:

The first one being, that since its creation, the EU has only been adding countries, no European countries have left the European Union yet. Therefore, it will have a negative symbolic impact for the EU. In addition other countries where Eurosceptism is very high such as Hungary, Czech Republic, or Austria could organise referendums to eventually decide to quit the EU. This means that the Brexit could have a negative power on the EU.

Moreover, Britain has a strong population ±64 million, a GDP between that of France and Germany, which demonstrates that its a powerful nation, and thus it would be strong loss for the EU, economically (less subsidies), and consequently a loss in diplomatic power.

On the other hand, it is hard to estimate the impact it will have on the UK and especially its economy. Many argue that it will badly effect London, as many companies, and especially banks based in the City might decide to move their headquarters to European cities, and particularly to Frankfurt.

The UK could be politically effected if it were to exit the EU, as Scotland is majoritarily in favour of staying in the EU, and could therefore organise another referendum to eventually leave the UK.

Finally, if the UK left the EU, it could be an opportunity for the EU to adapt, and maybe reform the way in which it functions.

To sum up, the consequences are difficult to estimate, but it seems that the Brexit would be negative for the EU, both economically and politically, and it could also have negative consequences in these sectors for the UK.
Written Jun 5 · View Upvotes
Upvote6DownvoteComment
Share
« Last Edit: July 25, 2016, 07:05:44 PM by David Pinnegar »

OfflineDavid Pinnegar

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 8
  • Karma: +0/-0
    • Share Post
    • View Profile
Re: Who benefits most from Brexit?
« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2016, 06:47:10 PM »

Paul Mainwood
Paul Mainwood, Born there, tried elsewhere, always ended up coming back
2.8k Views · Most Viewed Writer in Politics of the United Kingdom
We know what the British public thinks the answer to this question is.

The answer is surprising. Or rather, it’s not surprising on its own. What is surprising is that people can simultaneously:

Hold the opinion summarised below
Be split pretty much 50:50 on whether Brexit is a good idea.
A naive person might think that the two might conflict in some way. Still, here we go:


Written Jun 13 · View Upvotes
Upvote31DownvoteComments8+
Share
Patrick L Young
Patrick L Young, Born in UK, lived around the world, lifelong entrepreneur & investor. Optimist.
151 Views · Patrick has 30+ answers in European Union
Easy: the biggest winners are and will be, those who endorse the future and invest now (or are already investing & seeing to create value) for the future of Britain will win.

Those who are either in denial, or sadly too scared to move forward will lose. The latter group I have some sympathy for but the snowflakes are, alas, bound to be crushed under the wheels of opportunity sooner or later anyway thanks to their rigidity of thought.

It doesn’t matter whether you are an entrepreneur, an investor, an employee or a student, the key now is to adjust your worldview to embrace the myriad opportunities which lie in every industry.

The issue is to think outside the box (and indeed ignore the rather linear analysis prevalent in the media as well as the sheer negativity of those still in denial or stuck like rabbits in the headlights).

Thus, ignore the mainstream media or do the opposite of what they suggest may be a good approach but when Britain exists the EU it will of course become clear that the winners include even many who profoundly disagreed with the decision but they had the foresight to grasp the opportunity having seen that the path of Britain’s future had changed…
Written Jul 17 · View Upvotes
Upvote3DownvoteComment
Share
Frank Hollis
Frank Hollis
653 Views
The only winners will be:

Boris Johnson, who will become the new leader of the Tory party and, hence, the new Prime Minister.
Michael Gove, who will get a high-powered cabinet position. Chancellor of the Exchequer is top bet.
Nigel Farage who will be offered a safe tory seat in the next of the many by-elections. Possibly followed by a minor cabinet post.
The Scots. Who will have a good excuse to leave the UK and join the EU as an independent state after they have a near-unanimous referendum for independence.
The racists of the UK who will get their wishes of zero immigrants. Not because of any measures taken by the new government, but because our economy will be so totally screwed that nobody will want to come here.
Losers will be:

Everybody in the UK who isn’t stinking rich. The economy will be in the pits, jobs will be non-existent, the pound will be worth €0.50, the NHS will be privatised.

Edit: 3 weeks later.

Well, my first three predictions failed horribly. I really didn’t expect Nige and Boris to run away before the ship started sinking and Gove went and committed political suicide by stabbing the grandma’s favourite - that nice Mr Johnson.

The pound is on its way down with some easily-predicted results (higher fuel prices, higher imports - including food,) and one that I missed. The falling pound has meant that people have been shifting their money - away from gold (priced in dollars), away from energy and mining stocks and into safe(r) stocks like the pharmaceutical companies. :-)

The racists have had an immediate bonus win. They now feel that the whole of the country thinks the way that they do - so they feel free to publicly express their racism in acts of verbal or physical violence.
Updated Jul 13 · View Upvotes
Upvote20DownvoteComments4
Share
Michael Grainger
Michael Grainger
405 Views · Most Viewed Writer in Losers
If you go right back to the beginning the EEC was an attempt based on prior successes by the French to tie Germany into a relationship in which both parties could have balanced responsibilities and confidence. Britain was an irrelevance at that time, since we did not bring to the table anything but objections to the underlying goal, objections which neither the French nor the Germans were happy about as they would undermine the fundamental objectives which were peace, harmony and free trade.

Since then, however, the EEC has been transmogrified into the EU and the founding goals have, to some degree been lost in an undemocratic gravy train. The orginal need to stop the UK getting in the way has been transformed, in my view, to an EU from which dissent is unacceptable.

Until the French and Germans become convinced that the EU is an undemocratic, bureaucratic, largely corrupt disaster with the decision making capacity of a slug which has lost sight of the original goals - the Ukraine and Greece being brilliant examples of my thrust, the EU gravy train which soldier on, convinced of its own importance.

Will British departure make any difference? I doubt it. But then, the EU has a habit of refusing to accept referenda (as in Ireland) and demanding a rerun. There is also the point that the EU doesn’t have the faintest idea of the meaning of the words ‘representative democracy’ and if they did understand it would run a mile. I think that sooner or later the emergence of anti EU political parties (which are conveniently labelled ‘right wing’ by the gravy train chaps) in nations all over Europe will cause a major upset.

Only France and Germany can cause that upset and the UK being in or out is neither here nor there until we have leaders who can act as catalyst.

In sum, and in my view the UK will lose in the short term. I see no hope that such short tem loss will result in long term gain. The EU might in the longer term collapse for the reasons given, and the numbers of unemployed in Spain, for example, means the EU is already viewed as a disaster in some quarters.

Hold your nose and vote ‘in’. Only that way do you have a voice. The European problems won’t disappear if you throw your toys out of the pram.
Updated Jul 5 · View Upvotes
Upvote4DownvoteComment
Share
Grant de Graf
Grant de Graf, Trained Soothsayer

104 Views
Thus is a little academic because it's already happened. But the UK is the winner and the EU is the looser. However, it appears likely the UK will be good campers and that it will look to negotiating a deal, which will retain significant parts of the EU/UK relationship. In other words the UK is not showing the EU the middle finger, which is a good thing for everyone.
Written Jul 19 · View Upvotes
Upvote1DownvoteComment
Share
Kirk Kenney
Kirk Kenney, British since birth
320 Views
Winners: Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and xenophobes/racists.

Losers: everyone else.

Yes its pretty much that simple.
Written Jun 5 · View Upvotes
Upvote14


Share via deliciousShare via diggShare via facebookShare via furlShare via linkedinShare via myspaceShare via redditShare via stumbleShare via technoratiShare via twitter
 


Users found this pages searching for: