Peter Hawkins, Brit
26.2k Views · Most Viewed Writer in United Kingdom with 510+ answersWinners
Putin wants a divided Europe and a weak EU. One of the richer (and militarily powerful) nations in Europe leaving the EU helps this. This is why Kremlin funds can be traced to various Eurosceptic movements across the Continent. Russia accused of clandestine funding of European parties as US conducts major review of Vladimir Putin's strategyother anti-EU populists on the Continent.
eg. The National Front in France. A Brexit shows that joining the EU is not a one-way deal and provides a potential blueprint for other nations leaving.short-term, the right of the Tory party (the faction that I call “Arch-Thatcherites”)
. They would wrest control of the party quickly, and with Labour in disarray they could quite possibly win the next election unless a Brexit proves absolutely disastrous (I think it would be disastrous, but just how disastrous is up for debate).
businesses who want to reduce workers’ protection. Currently, the EU stops them. The Arch-Thatcherites that would be in control in Brexit-world are explicit that they want aggressive deregulation.Jeremy Corbyn.
A total disaster following Brexit is the only realistic scenario by which I can see Corbyn entering number 10.Nigel Farage.
His place in the history books will be assured. He is basically a one-man campaigning machine that has taken what was a pretty obscure movement to having an absolutely huge impact on the UK government policy. If we vote to Brexit, I will quite happily acknowledge him as one of the UK’s most skilled politicians, even if I disagree with him on a bunch of stuff.maybe non-EU migrants.
I don’t find this especially likely given the clamour to get migration down from the Brexiteers, but I guess it’s possible that a Brexit would allow us to rationalise our immigration system and allow more high-skilled migrants from outside of the EU in. As I say, I think this is pretty politically unlikely, but it’s not impossible by any means.maybe people who don’t own a home yet.
The British housing market is daft, and arguably needs a good crash (he writes as a non-home owner). A Brexit could cause that market correction.LosersOrdinary British people.
Major recession, house prices in the toilet, sluggish economic growth, associated effect on pensions, inflation increases due to tariffs etc.
the EU and NATO. The EU and NATO are weakened by the UK leaving the EU. Our NATO allies have been explicit about this.British workers,
whose protections get chucked on the bonfire in an effort to mitigate the recessionEU citizens who want to work in the UK
, unless they have some absurdly specific skillset that the tabloids would insist doesn’t get locked out. Maybe paediatricians or something like that. But people outside of these protected industries are going to be locked out, as the post-Brexit government loses its excuse for not getting immigration down to under 100,000 netModerate “Cameron” faction of the Conservatives.
Cameron is politically toast if we vote Leave. Same for Osborne, Javid and so on.
Yes, I came up with more winners than losers, but that’s because the Eurosceptic side is more interesting. Not because they have the strongest case (they don’t).
Updated Jul 7 · View Upvotes
Yuen Lo, studied, lived and worked here for over thirty years
Most of the excellent answers so far are quite broadly scoped, I want to cover five specific examples.Finance industry and workers
- Bank CEOs do not want brexit because it will both increase the regulatory complexity of their global businesses and also make it harder for them to hire staff in London. But this throws up this freaky result: if you are working in finance in London and you have a British passport, you are a winner, because there will be a dramatic cut in the future supply of talented professionals you compete with.Builders
- I had maybe four sets of builders quote on our home extension. Although the head builder tends to be English, the labourers are nearly always of a single ethnic group. One was Polish, one was Chinese, while the builders we went with were largely Ukrainian. The UK does not have enough skilled builders, plumbers and electricians and post brexit people working in the building trade will earn more, but I imagine it will become virtually impossible for people to get their residential projects started. The building trade is an odd beneficiary of both EU and illegal immigration, both of which will be under pressure from a new anti immigrant government. Also given how poor the UK is at infrastructure, this could delay major projects like HS2 and Crossrail 2. More prosaically, we’re going to have to get into DIY the way our dads were.Academia
- As I discuss here  the university system will face a double whammy of reduced access to EU research council funding and a collapse in foreign students. EU research funding is a little under a $1bn a year.  In terms of university places, in 2014 there were 430k  non-UK students in the UK. Non EU students (130k) typically pay 3 times "home" fees. 430k equates to 17% of the higher education student body. We will quickly discover how many of these non-EU and EU students will be allowed in and it probably won’t be many. Staff numbers will come down and the Government will step in to make up the difference in funding. Since exams won’t get easier, students will overall probably get a worse experience and enjoy less opportunity going forward.People with dreams
- do you dream of living in Berlin for a year? Or do you fantasize about a three bed semi in Dagenham? Is your ideal partner Eva Green or Cheryl Cole? My opinion is that whatever impact the referendum has, you mostly won’t notice it changing your life. But it will have a huge impact on the probability of your dreams. Perhaps your chances of being swept off your feet by a suave Frenchman are only one in a hundred, but post Brexit it might be less than one in a thousand! Broadly, the more internationalist your outlook, the more bruised your dreams will be outside the EU.
I wonder if that explains this:The less well off
- will again see a ambivalent outcome. Clearly fewer immigrants means the chances of the unskilled getting a job on a building site or in a field will go up. However, the EU referendum will likely prove to be a right wing Tory takeover of a centre right Tory England. As noted by the unions  , this may put at risk worker rights around parenting, discrimination and time off. If you’re wondering what the government means about putting your pensions at risk, its a straightforward analysis that immigrants pay more tax than natives. Remember they tend to be younger. I don’t want to associate my analysis with the GDP stuff because it is so unknown, but if immigrants do pay more tax, then both pensions and welfare are at risk.
As an aside I think basic income is a great way to link the benefits of immigration to individual citizens.
This answer follows another I wrote arguing that the only impact of Brexit will be to create winners and losers: Yuen Lo's answer to Do you think that the UK should leave the EU?
 Yuen Lo's answer to What would the consequences of a Brexit be for UK citizens?
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Updated Jul 5 · View Upvotes
Bonnie Foley-Wong, CEO Pique Ventures, 18+ yrs in finance & investing, author Integrated Investing
Both sides of the Brexit debate wanted more or less the same thing - access to resources and opportunities, safety and security, and a better future. People voted or were aligned to either Remain or Leave based on different reasons and biases, but who is winning or losing as a result of the referendum outcome? Who will win or lose if the UK does in fact leave the EU (at the time of writing, Article 50 has not yet been invoked and therefore the formal process of exiting the EU has not started).Winners
People who already have choices, options, access to resources and opportunities.
The more choices and resources you have, the more boundary-less the world is. People with the advantage and privilege of choice and resources will simply go to wherever the opportunities are and deal with whatever the rules and regulations are to do so.People who succeed in uncertain or volatile economic conditions.
Traders and people who profit from volatility in the financial markets may benefit.LosersPeace in the world.
I had believed that irrespective of the outcome of the vote, the very existence of the referendum itself had made space for voices of hate and anger to get louder.Global economy.
About a month ago, I vocalized something that had been brewing on my mind for some time - about the potential bubbles in the US tech sector and in China. Interest rates are also unsustainably low or negative in some economies. Something has to give. Strangely, the sound of Brexit has drowned out practically everything else. We now have uncertainty in Europe, the US, and China. This, to me, does not a good combination make.People with less choice, options, economic resources and opportunities.
One friend that voted Leave seemed to point to the Commonwealth as a potential soft landing post-Brexit. For many, Brexit was about shared values first and foremost and economics second and not to be defined by continental, geographic borders. This makes me wonder whether the Commonwealth represents those shared values some British people were looking for. Who knows whether the Commonwealth will win or lose, but it was an interesting thing to look into. For comparison, the combined GDP of EU members in 2014 was $18.5 trillion. The US was $16.8 trillion in 2013, China was $9.2 trillion. The combined GDP of Commonwealth members was $9 trillion. Could trade amongst Commonwealth members become a more important feature in the UK’s economy or will members such as Australia start to back away slowly?
Written Jul 4 · View Upvotes
Alfred Dominic Vella
Alfred Dominic Vella, A Brummie by birth
1k Views · Alfred has 120+ answers in United Kingdom
David Cameron And Martin Schulz – Bad Cop / Bad Cop Anti-Brexit Strategy
Answering this is much like answering questions like ‘who will win when evolution is in progress’?
Brexit would be an opportunity for both Britain and the EU to try out new things. Britain should never have been allowed to join and General De Gaulle never wanted us to anyway. He knew that we never like being part of a team unless we are captain.
There may well be tough times ahead for both the EU and Britain and when these come people will blame the result of the referendum, whatever it may be!
As a committed European, I want the best for the world, Europe, Britain, Milton Keynes, Bletchley … IN THAT ORDER rather in the reverse order that people seem to make their decisions on.
I want to see a much more democratic Britain and EU but currently democracy is stuck by the resistance of national governments wanting their own sovereignty.
I do not prefer rule by Cameron over Schulz. What grounds would anyone have? Racial, because Cameron is British? Does Cameron have more of a mandate that Schulz?
Cameron has the support of 330 of the 650 MPs, Schulz that of 409 of the 612 MEPs.
That is 50.8% for Cameron as opposed to 66.8% for Schulz.
Written Jun 10 · View Upvotes
Rupert Baines, fascinated by it
1.3k Views · Most Viewed Writer in European Union with 270+ answers
I agree with Peter Hawkins answer
To add a couple
Lawyers. Figuring out Laws, contract disputes, lawsuits… Lots of business
Bureaucrats 1. Ask those trade deals we will need (124 to replace the ones the EU has) well need a huge number if negotiators.
Bureaucrats 2. All the laws and regulations now done at EU level will need to be done within UKI; also lots of people needed to write regulations and laws.
EU citizens. While Brexit will hurt our economy most, it will damage EU too.
Other people around the world. Similarly, it will have minor effects on economy in other countries.
Poorer areas in UK. The EU send money to regional development in poor regions, which the UK has got a surprising number of. Those funds will stop and it is unlikely a Tory government would replace them. even if it could afford them, which it categorically will not be able to do, because it will be very short of money.
Updated Jul 5 · View Upvotes
Simon Pastor, Just a European Citizen
Its quite difficult to know exactly what will happen and who will benefit if Britain were to exit the EU. However, there are a couple things that can be said:
The first one being, that since its creation, the EU has only been adding countries, no European countries have left the European Union yet. Therefore, it will have a negative symbolic impact for the EU. In addition other countries where Eurosceptism is very high such as Hungary, Czech Republic, or Austria could organise referendums to eventually decide to quit the EU. This means that the Brexit could have a negative power on the EU.
Moreover, Britain has a strong population ±64 million, a GDP between that of France and Germany, which demonstrates that its a powerful nation, and thus it would be strong loss for the EU, economically (less subsidies), and consequently a loss in diplomatic power.
On the other hand, it is hard to estimate the impact it will have on the UK and especially its economy. Many argue that it will badly effect London, as many companies, and especially banks based in the City might decide to move their headquarters to European cities, and particularly to Frankfurt.
The UK could be politically effected if it were to exit the EU, as Scotland is majoritarily in favour of staying in the EU, and could therefore organise another referendum to eventually leave the UK.
Finally, if the UK left the EU, it could be an opportunity for the EU to adapt, and maybe reform the way in which it functions.
To sum up, the consequences are difficult to estimate, but it seems that the Brexit would be negative for the EU, both economically and politically, and it could also have negative consequences in these sectors for the UK.
Written Jun 5 · View Upvotes